OTHER SEAS

Japan : economic growth was revisited upward to an annualized real 2,1% in the first semester period thanks to an upswing in capital expenditure in the nonmanufacturing sector, government was obliged to recognize, though analysts continued to emphasize the risk of a downturn due to sluggish personal consumption. The data released by the Cabinet Office, revising growth up from the preliminary estimate of a 2% expansion, did not change analysts's view that the rise in GDP was due to a technical factor, with imports declining faster than exports and consequently pushing up real GDP. In the same period, exports dropped 2,5% and imports sank 4,9%, as in the initial reading. The governement Shinzō Abe maintains that the world's third-largest economy is recovering moderately despite an uncertain global outlook amid growing trade tensions between China and the United States of America.

Republic of Korea : le PIB a progressé de 3,2% fin 2018. Les effets des tensions commerciales entre la Chine et les États-Unis seront moins fortes selon les experts de la Banque Mondiale. La croissance du PIB sera proche de 2,5% en 2019. Séoul continue à observer d'un œil aigu la situation chez son plus proche voisin tout en jouant la carte de l'apaisement comme le souligne le geste fort lors de l'annonce le 19 mai dernier de l'envoi de près de 50 000 tonnes de riz en Corée du Nord. C'est le Programme alimentaire mondial (PAM) qui sera chargé de l'acheminement afin de parer au plus vite à une pénurie alimentaire chronique qui sévit depuis plusieurs années an Nord du 38ème parallèle de la péninsule coréenne.

Republic of India : riding on a massive saffron surge sweeping through most parts of India, the BJP-led NDA governement became the only non-Congress governement to return to power in the Indian political history. After Jawaharlal Nehru and Indira Gandhi, Narendra Modi also became the third prime minister of India who retained power for a second term with full majority in Lok Sabha. The counting of votes was held on 23 May 2019, and was completed early the following day. Initial returns showed the BJP leading in all 303 constituencies it eventually won, and opposition leader Rahul Gandhi conceded defeat prior to the official certification of most results. NDA majority finishes 353 (change in seats 2014 +17), UPA just 90, as a result victory is clear and indisputable. Narendra Modi is still the most popular politician in India. Modi is the face and the voice of his party, the engine behind much of its charisma. In a way, a part of any vote for a BJP candidate is a vote for him. It is the first time that the Hindu nationalists have a leader this recognizable, and thus they are sure to keep him as their prime minister and he'll remain a key party leader for years to come. Now, india is set to make strides in next year with the injection of funds into its failing infrastructure. Investment combined with the application of new technologies and job creation will boost GDP and economic growth. However, problems such a population growth and corruption are likely to be items on the policy agenda for a soothed decade. In India, growth is projected to pick up to 7,5% in 2019 and 7,7% in 2020, supported by the continued recovery of investment and robust consumption amid a more expansionary stance of monetary policy and some expected impetus from fiscal policy. Internationally, India, Russia hold talks to boost space cooperation. Moscow has promised all assistance for India's Human Space Flight Mission and details regarding cooperation for the Gaganyaan Mission were discussed, the statement said, adding it also offered support to India in participating in the International Space Station. Moreover, the issue has to be re-examined thoroughly in 2020 on the basis of further information and experience gained. Space has emerged as a key area of cooperation between India and Russian Federation in the high technology sector. New Dehli shares robust cooperation with Moscow in strategic areas of defence, nuclear and space. 

United Mexican States : le nouveau président Andrés Manuel López Obrador, élu le 1er juillet 2018 après une campagne électorale marquée par la violence, a commencé par lutter contre la corruption, notamment en faisant annuler le projet du futur aéroport de Mexico. Il a voulu tenir ses promesses de campagne : augmentation des salaires des plus démunis, soins médicaux, réforme énergétique et de nombreux projets économiques très ambitieux. Celui que le Mexique surnomme par ses initiales, AMLO, doit maintenant entrer dans le vif du sujet même s'il estime avoir bien avancé en la matière. Malgré des débuts prometteurs, la banque centrale vient de réduire ses prévisions de croissance du fait des incertitudes autour de la politique gouvernementale et des relations tendues avec le secteur entrepreneurial mexicain. Ce bémol est d'autant plus fataliste que la perspective d'une récession aux États-Unis pour 2020 s'est considérablement élargie, les tensions commerciales continuant de constituer la plus grande menace pour l'économie mexicaine. Au nord du Rio Grande se joue aussi une partie significative de l'avenir des 134 millions de mexicains et de la douzième puissance indistrielle mondiale (source Organisation des Nations unies - mars 2019).

Republic of Cuba : the island has always been considered the pearl of the Caribbean both in its economic capacity and in its potential. But the present is hardly acceptable. Indeed, Cuba governement has announced it is rationing staple foods and hygiene products due to shortages which it partly blames on the tightening of a trade embargo imposed by the United States. Faced with a grave economic crisis, Havana says it will control and ration the sales of chicken, eggs, rice, beans, soap and other essential items. That various forms of rationing would be employed in order to deal with the shortages. Cuba's economic future after the Castro's reign, the first mission is to fracture all the measures the U.S. government imposes. The first power in the Caribbean zone, home to nearly twelve million people, imports roughly two thirds of its food at an annual cost of more than two billion euros and brief shortages of individual products have been common for years. A handful of agricultural reforms in recent years have failed to boost output in its inefficient, centrally planned economy, which also suffers from a decades-old U.S. trade embargo. Another difficulty, a decline in aid from key ally Venezuela and lower exports have left it struggling to find the cash to import. The next U.S. election in 2020 could be a game-changer and restore hope.

Brasil : certains médias n'ont pas hésité à parler de séisme international après la nette victoire du nouveau président Jair Bolsonaro investi le 1er janvier dernier qui préfigure le retour des militaires en politique. Il conviendra de rassurer les investisseurs étrangers par des réformes économiques car le chômage est fort dans un pays à la jeunesse sacrifiée. Les technocrates libéraux, les militaires et le groupe nationaliste anti-mondialisation qui sont dans le gouvernement ne partagent pas les mêmes idéessur le lien que doit avoir le pays avec la Chine ainsi que sur la gestion économique du pays. Alors que le Brésil renonce à organiser la réception de la COP25 en 2019 créant des tensions domestiques avec le retrait des accords de Paris sur le climat, J. Bolsonaro continue de se démarquer dans un pays en quête d'un nouvel élan.

Commonwealth of Australia : Australia's economic with higher performances for labor freedom, government integrity, fiscal health, and trade freedom offsetting a steep drop in judicial effectiveness, making its best report for financial experts. The territory is ranked 4th among 43 countries in the Asia-Pacific region, and its overall score is well above the regional and world averages. The Australian economy is undergoing structural change as the mining investment boom unwinds, having peaked in 2012. The governement of the federal parliamentary constitutional monarchy, Scott Morrisson since 24 August 2018, is supporting this transition through corporate tax cuts, negociation of additional free-trade agreements, and further reforms in the labor market. Overall, Australia's robust free-market democracy has benefited from an effective system of governement that facilitates vibrant entrepreneurial development. With almost all industries open to foreign competition and a skilled workforce readily available, Australia remains an attractive and dynamic destination for investment. Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, presents today a compelling opportunity for business. There has never been a better time to live, work in this part of the world.

 

 

 

 

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